Many cities in Canada are booming right now. Their population is exploding (e.g. Calgary, an eye-popping 6% last year). Construction is red hot as the frantic push for building more housing grows. New apartments and condos are springing ever higher into the sky. There is a desperate search for skilled trades and construction workers. Unemployment numbers in a lot of markets are low.
And yet.
There are dangerous signs about Canada's economy—especially our productivity. Or, more precisely, our poor productivity. That is affecting the quality of life and the economic security for families. It offers a grim view of Canada's future economic prosperity.
Many families have been whip-sawed by the double jeopardy of high interest rates and high inflation. That has reduced their buying power. They feel that all the time at the grocery store or the gas pumps.
The productivity problem compounds that personal financial peril. It is the most troubling for Canada's future economic prosperity and business development. It has been a major problem for many years, and we have never solved it.
Worse, it is getting worse. The OECD projects Canada to be the worst-performing of 38 advanced economies over the next forty years.
A Fraser Institute report shows that real GDP per capita is getting poorer. The study reported that inflation-adjusted per-person GDP slid from the 2019 figure of $59,905 to the 2023 number of $58,311. That is a three percent decline.
The Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Carolyn Rogers, said in a speech a few weeks ago that we must boost productivity. "You've seen those signs that say, 'In emergency, break glass.' Well, it's time to break the glass."
In the years since 1980, our labour productivity growth has declined from 1.8% to 0.8%. It is a dramatic decrease. Ms. Rogers' warning rings clearly.
Cities are a part of the problem and will be a part of the solution. Or, more accurately, many solutions, because the thorny problem of how to get out of this cycle will take many ideas, strong business leaders, courageous politicians, and a change of attitude and some policies in Canada.
Certainly, more investment is necessary. So is more training for skilled workers and re-education and re-training for others. Our colleges and universities have a significant role to play in the courses they offer and the graduates they produce.
We need to better leverage the torrent of immigration to ensure they are working in high-level jobs rather than low-productivity jobs. That will involve modernizing licensing and the recognition of foreign diplomas by provincial governments.
Small and medium businesses need more support and investment. They need fewer regulations, and that's another area municipalities can assist. A lot of entrepreneurs get weary of Canada's layers of government regulation.
Competition is healthy for producing strong businesses with a high degree of innovation. We need more Canadian businesses creating more globally saleable ideas and products.
We need to sort out our nation's financial woes. We owe too much sovereign debt, our various governments are paying too much in interest, we are over-taxed, and businesses are frustrated. Inter-provincial trade barriers are ridiculous and cost us billions every year.
Canada has been very good at having conferences and meetings about the productivity problem. Let's get the action part of those reports going and forget about more talk. Let's break the glass.