As the runway shortens for all parties to make gains and lock in votes in this federal election campaign, new data from the Angus Reid Institute shows the race tightening between the incumbent Liberals and the challenger Conservatives.
For the CPC, these data represent the first glimmer of hope in several weeks, as their support ticks up ever so slightly, while Liberal support remains statistically unchanged, though down a point to 45 per cent.
However, the reasons driving this movement reveals more about the state of the campaign than topline vote intent data. The shift may be attributed to three key things.
First, the issues: concern over cost of living and inflation has been climbing since the start of the campaign, up to 56 per cent now, while worries about tariff threats and managing the Trump-Canada relationship has declined, off 12 points in the last month.
This latter issue especially has represented a stronghold of Liberal support in recent weeks. Its diminishment in the minds of Canadians opens space for voters to change their minds.