Canadian municipalities continue to ponder the impact of the Trudeau departure. It will have an immediate short-term impact, as well as longer-term implications.

Our local governments will need to be alert and nimble, because the changes coming will not necessarily be positive for Canada's towns and cities.

Municipal managers who are responsible for intergovernmental affairs are beginning to 'game' scenarios to brief their political bosses at city hall.

While there are questions yet unanswered, the most likely scenario may be this:

1.  Short term:
   1. As Parliament is now prorogued, bills have been killed and no new business or spending can come forward.
   2. Commitments on spending are put on hold or become tentative; municipalities hoping for big bucks for transit, housing and other infrastructure projects will be frustrated.
   3. The media focus on the crash race for the PM's job means little else gets covered—except for US President Trump's apparent obsession with expanding US borders, returning auto manufacturing to the US, and slapping tariffs on its friends. Border cities are nervous. Canada's economy shudders.

1. Medium term:
   1. The March selection of the new Prime Minister means the hurried creation of a new Cabinet, a rushed Speech from the Throne, and a likely vote of no-confidence as Parliament gets back to work. That will trigger a spring federal election.
   2. Federal decision-making stops then. No new money for municipal projects. Cabinet ministers are focused on their local election. National media do polls. Promises are made, rarely to be kept.
   3.  The election most likely has one of three outcomes:
      1. A large Conservative majority
      2. A small Conservative majority
      3. A minority Conservative government
   4. The Official Opposition becomes either:   
      1. A greatly diminished Liberal party; or
      2. A surprisingly buoyant NDP; or
      3. The Bloc.
   5. A new, smaller federal cabinet is formed under Prime Minister Poilievre; there will be a greater representation from Western Canada, rural Ontario, and the Maritimes. Senior civil servants will depart government service. New ministerial staff will arrive.
   6. Municipalities will be startled and frustrated at the changes. They will have few contacts and entrees into the new government's corridors of power.
   7. The new government will be sworn in in June. A new Speech from the Throne and a subsequent budget will arrive in the fall. The key priorities will upset municipalities because few will involve them.

1. The Long Term:
   1. There will be less spending by the federal government on municipal projects.
   2. Some big-ticket items currently on local government drawing boards will be cancelled.
   3. Housing, public transportation, arts and cultural investments, and other infrastructure projects will be vulnerable.
   4. The chances of a 'new deal' for local governments to get a 1 cent share of the HST, or a larger part of the Gas Tax, will be greatly diminished.
   5. Canadian municipalities will continue to be significantly underfunded by our federal government because the structural system in place is the poorly designed BNA Act.
   6. Canadian mayors, councillors and senior administrators will continue to be frustrated: once again the federal government won't be true partners with Canada's 4,000 local governments.