The recently announced 3^rd quarter immigration statistics have shaken city officials across Canada. In those three months, Canada's population increased by 430,000 people.

To put that in perspective, the annual target was 465,000.

In 2023, Canada's population will have grown by well over 1 million people.

The reason municipal officials are stunned is quite simply because there is no adequate housing for these newcomers. And because probably 99% of them will live in our cities, the pressure on local housing authorities and on city councils is immense.

There seems little doubt that immigration numbers are linked to the problem of housing affordability. That starts with rental fees for apartments—a typical entry-level decision for families. Rents have skyrocketed in recent times, far more than wage increases or the cost of living.

In most cities, there is a lack of supply. The vacancy rate for rental accommodations in many cities is at or near an all-time low. Developers must decide to build condos or apartments. It is a complex equation for everyone involved.

Cities have been under the gun for some time to get more housing built, but that has ratcheted-up in recent years. Federal and provincial programs, demands to accelerate housing starts, changes to zoning bylaws to encourage everything from granny-flats to six-plexes on single-family lots, have become a raucous chorus, even as senior government policies exacerbate the issue. (See: Ontario Greenbelt strategy: No. Yes. Maybe. Oops. Sorry.)

There is a certain amount of chaos in the marketplace and in city halls as the pressure to develop new housing spaces and get shovels in the ground becomes a louder drumbeat.

That is why the federal government policy of allowing more than a million new residents into the country in 2023 is so puzzling to municipal leaders. If they couldn't accommodate the planned 465,000 newcomers for the year, how can they possibly accommodate two or three times that?

Housing prices have been bouncing around the last year or two, depending on the market, the latest mortgage rates, and the economic outlook. The surge in immigration has certainly contributed to the cost of housing, although it is more severely felt in the rental market.

There is no question that Canada needs immigration to grow and prosper. Our own reproduction levels are extremely low and are not viable to spur growth and prosperity. Canada has always welcomed immigrants. At times we have stepped forward to assist those in particular need, such as refugees from Hungary in 1956-57, and from Syria a few years ago.

But what has local officials scratching their heads is wondering if there is a disconnect between federal immigration policies and a clear understanding of what those policies mean on the ground in our towns and cities. In other words, what's the full impact for municipalities? Can the municipality provide updated infrastructure such as parks, roads and electricity? How will newcomers find doctors when the health care system is already overextended? Most bluntly, can new residents be housed?

Too often, the answer is NO. Some have suggested a pause to catch up and try to narrow the housing gap. For development corporations, they need to better understand the numbers and the federal plans, and to adjust their corporate strategic plans. Cities need time to find land, do rezoning, service outlying areas, and so on. If municipalities make a mistake in the zoning or development process, the consequences stay with that community for a very long time.

That is why the 3^rd quarter numbers for Canada's immigration are so startling. And why municipal officials are nervously gasping for breath, wondering what the next quarter will show.