Welcome to 2024! I hope it is a happy, successful, and calm year for you. Oops. Calm + municipal government is not usually an equation that fits together very smoothly.

Part of that uncertainty is the spectre of senior government elections, which always means change—either of government or of Cabinet ministers. Either means disruption in the relationship between local governments and their provincial masters.

As mayors and council members have learned, it takes a lot of time and effort to build a solid working relationship with a minister and their staff, and just one overnight bombshell to destroy it all. This year will have lots of minefields.

In 2024, provincial elections are scheduled for British Columbia on October 19, New Brunswick on October 21, and Saskatchewan on October 28. It is always possible that a surprise election will be called by another premier in another province or territory.

Any election—even when a government is returned to power—brings with it new policies, financial priorities, members of the caucus and cabinet, and the inevitable scars from the campaign. Political staff members will frequently change. Some bureaucrats with be shifted to new portfolios.

All those changes mean a rebuilding process with your new provincial government. If there is a change in government, it results in a completely new political philosophy with significantly different campaign promises and priorities that towns and cities must absorb. That will take time and effort. It could even mean a shift in a local government's own priorities to better mesh with their new provincial government's objectives.

The great question mark hovering over all Canadian provinces, territories, and municipalities this year is the possibility—probability? —of a federal election.

If the present government is returned, it would still mean a reordering of cabinet, federal priorities, and ministers and their staffs. Implementing campaign promises and developing new budget strategies would impact relations with the provinces and territories. The trickle-down would inevitably shift municipal opportunities and strategic plans as pots of funding appear and disappear.

If there is a change of government at the federal level, the impact would be much greater. A new Prime Minister. Brand new Cabinet. All new political staffers in the government. Likely shifts of many senior bureaucrats. The appearance and disappearance of ministries. Quite different fiscal policies. New infrastructure priorities. Questions about immigration policies, provincial revenue sharing and other critical federal government plans. Overall, a dramatic change in federal priorities and spending.

There is very little local government officials can do about these elections except reel with the punches. Many municipal elected officials have their personal political preferences, to which they are absolutely entitled. A few even run. But everyone knows that the winning MP remembers those things. And while it should not make a difference, and with many MPs does not, there can be some hard feelings caused by a competitive campaign.

All these things mean a political minefield in 2024 for municipal council members and senior city hall staff.

Perhaps the better wish for you this year would be, a happy, successful, and survivable year.